Nepal's decision to ban the import of non-essential items amid depleting forex reserves may hit Indian exports. The country's central bank - Nepal Rastra Bank - last week instructed commercial banks not to open letters of credit (LCs) for importing non-essential items. This is to prevent further decline of the country's foreign exchange reserves. However, it has not issued any formal communication yet.
Only 80.6 per cent of the Rs 6-trillion allocation has been spent by February, data from the Controller General of Accounts shows.
In a major relief to Indian information technology (IT) companies operating in Australia, Canberra has agreed to amend its domestic laws to stop taxing offshore income of such Indian companies, as part of the free trade deal inked. This may lead to savings up to $200 million each year for over 100 Indian IT companies operating in Australia. "The Government of Australia has agreed to amend the domestic taxation law to stop the taxation of offshore income of Indian firms providing technical services to Australia. "This will resolve the issue that the Indian government has raised about the double taxation avoidance agreement (DTAA) between the two governments for the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income," said a commerce ministry official.
Taking advantage of a Russian offer to sell its crude oil cheap and bear the cost of insurance and transportation, India may import as much as 2 million tonnes (mt), or roughly 15 million barrels of crude, from the sanctioned nation in 2022, Business Standard has learnt. This comes after reports that Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) bought 3 million barrels of Russian Urals from trader Vitol for May delivery. This will be on cost, insurance and freight (CIF) model, where the seller incurs the costs and pays the freight, including insurance charges.
The finance ministry said on Tuesday that high energy and commodity prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may provide an upside risk to inflation and continued vigil is required. "Going forward, elevated energy and commodity prices may act as an upside risk to the inflation outlook in the near-medium term. "Given the inherently unsustainable nature of high prices, international commodity prices are expected to level off early with an increase in supplies outside the crisis zone," the department of economic affairs said in its latest monthly economic report for February.
India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
The apparel and engineering sectors have already witnessed the trend in the past one week. If this continues, it can have an impact on the overall export demand in the coming months, considering that Europe is the largest national export market for India.
The government may soon give the green light to bilateral trade between Russia and India in their national currencies to avoid any trade disruptions, multiple people aware of the matter said. While the Department of Commerce has recommended the proposal, an announcement is likely to be made by the finance ministry after further deliberations between the Department of Economic Affairs and Department of Financial Services. "The finance ministry will take a call on how to peg the two currencies," a senior government official told Business Standard. In the past, the two nations have had rupee-rouble trade, and when such an arrangement is implemented again, it will bypass the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West.
The Centre's ambitious Rs 6-trillion National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) could fall short of yearly targets for the current fiscal year (FY22) and the next one as well (FY23), partly due to the long gestation period in monetising big-ticket railway infrastructure, Business Standard has learnt from sources in the finance and rail ministries. Officials say the major chunk of railway monetisation will happen from FY24 onwards because leasing some of the infrastructure, like stadiums and dedicated freight corridor, will not happen anytime soon. Rail infra is expected to be the second-biggest contributor to the NMP, with about Rs 1.52 trillion worth of assets to be monetised.
A proposal in the Union Budget 2022-23 to raise excise duty on dirtier, unblended retail petrol and diesel has met with some resistance from the petroleum ministry. However, finance ministry officials say no such communication arguing against the levy of extra duty on diesel has been received from the oil ministry. Until there are discussions between the two departments, the proposal will not be tweaked in the Finance Bill. The Rs 2 per litre additional excise duty proposed on unblended fuels in the Finance Bill will result in a uniform hike of diesel prices across the country from October 1.
Fitch Ratings on Monday cautioned that the Indian government has little fiscal headroom at its disposal to respond to possible shocks to growth given the country's lowest investment grade credit rating with a negative outlook. "India's public debt/GDP ratio, at about 87 per cent in FY21, is well above the median of around 60% for 'BBB' rated sovereigns. "We revised the Outlook on India's rating to Negative, from Stable, in June 2020, partly owing to our assumptions about the impact of the pandemic on public finance metrics. "The government has little fiscal headroom at its current rating level to respond to possible shocks to growth," it said in a report.
At the customary post-Budget media interactions, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her topmost bureaucrats touched upon a number of issues. The minister said the government taxing income from digital virtual assets did not give them legitimacy and that issue was being dealt separately in the planned cryptocurrency Bill. She also expressed confidence that the Budget targets were achievable.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the much-awaited 2022-23 Union Budget on February 1. While there has been strong recovery in some sectors, touch services like hospitality, tourism and leisure continue to suffer after two Covid-19 waves. Household savings have been hit due to increased spending on health care. Consumption has still not reached pre-pandemic levels.
'The robust tax collections give the finance minister a fair amount of headroom for an expansionary fiscal policy.'
The Centre is considering a gradual phasing out of certain direct tax exemptions meant for corporate and personal tax payers. This is among the tax proposals being discussed for the upcoming Union Budget 2022-23. A top policymaker said that according to the government's internal assessment, the percentage of corporates and individuals shifting to the new exemption-less tax regime has been very encouraging, and the Budget-makers expect many more to make the switch in the coming years. The person also said the finance ministry is exploring the option of rationalising the capital gains tax rates.
These could include strengthening the public-private partnership (PPP) dispute resolution mechanism, uniform PPP institutional framework, easier terms for infrastructure companies accessing bond markets, and tax sops, Business Standard has learnt. Investment in infrastructure projects with high multiplier effect has been the Centre's main plank to revive the economy, create employment and boost consumption.
The department of investment and public asset management is racing against time to launch the LIC IPO, which could become the largest-ever listing on the Indian bourses. This would lead to some delay in the strategic divestment of IDBI Bank.
According to highly placed sources, the finance ministry is likely to extend ECLGS and other loan guarantee schemes for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), hospitality and tourism sector, and the health infrastructure beyond March 31, Business Standard has learnt. This is likely to be announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman as part of her Budget speech on February 1.
India and China have mostly set aside their bilateral differences in order to champion the cause of developing countries at the World Trade Organisation (WTO). That seems to be changing. During the latest round of China's trade policy review, India questioned its northern neighbour's claim that it was a developing country, since, going by the World Bank's definition, its per capita income belongs to that of an upper middle income country. "As per the per capita income level, the Chinese economy belongs to 'upper-middle income'. "How can China still claim to be a developing country? "What are the indicators which China is using to claim such a status?" India asked.
While presenting her 2021-22 Union Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had set a fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) against the 2020-21 Revised Estimate of 9.5 per cent. The fiscal correction in the upcoming 2022-23 Union Budget is unlikely to be that steep. Even as discussions among top Budget-makers are ongoing, the fiscal deficit target for 2022-23 may likely be in the range of 6.5-6.8 per cent.
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